Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation is predicting lower housing starts in the Windsor region in 2025.
The CMHC has released its Housing Market Outlook, which predicts lower housing starts in the Windsor CMA, driven by fewer condominium apartment starts.
The report says this follows an exceptional year in 2024, where the City of Windsor was one of the first municipalities to surpass its provincial housing targets.
Anthony Passarelli, CMHC lead economist for Southern Ontario, says last year Windsor had a very strong year due to an unusual number of condominium apartments that started, but this year things may slide off a bit.
"A bit lower housing starts total in the market, still a healthy amount but not like what we saw last year when you had those unusual numbers of condominium apartment starts, but we do think things will stay pretty strong, particularly on the rental building side of things, and maybe we'll see a slight uptake in some of the single detached and townhouses that have been a bit slower to be built in the last few years," he says.
The outlook notes that the forecasted decline in 2025 will be balanced by increased single-detached, row, and semi-detached starts.
The CMHC also predicts that market conditions are likely to tighten, reflecting increased resale activity in the later part of 2025. This will put upward pressure on home prices that will continue into the first half of 2026.
Passarelli says the resale market is poised to finally come out of the lows over the past few years.
"If you just look at the number of homes that have changed hands relative to the population, you're really at very low levels. So everything is pointing toward that rebound; it's just a matter of when it's going to happen. All the uncertainty around the tariff threats and the economy right now is probably going to push things out until like later in the year or 2026," he says.
In the rental market, the average rent is expected to stabilize and grow at a slower rate, especially in areas near universities and colleges due to reduced demand from international students.
Passarelli says in Windsor and cities with post-secondary schools, in the zones near the main campuses, there are higher vacancies.
"When we're doing our forecast for 2025, we're building in the idea that we're going to have another year where there's an international student cap," he says. "The temporary resident limits put in place by the federal government are going to be even more restrictive this year than last year. So that's going to help keep rental demand in check. You will have some new buildings completed too, so we think vacancies are going to rise again this year."
In January 2024, Immigration Minister Marc Miller imposed a cap on international students over the next two years.
In 2025, new international student study permits will be reduced by 10 per cent from the 2024 target of 485,000. That will mean 437,000 permits issued next year, with that same target continuing into 2026.