Ford’s lead over Crombie’s Liberals has shrunk since start of election campaign: Nanos survey

By CTV News

Published: February 10, 2025 at 12:39 PM

A composite image made from four file photographs show, from left to right, Leader of the Ontario NDP Marit Stiles in Toronto, Saturday, Feb. 1, 2025; Ontario Progressive Conservative Party Leader Doug Ford in Pickering, Ont., Wednesday, Feb. 5, 2025; Ontario Liberal Party Leader Bonnie Crombie in Ottawa, Sunday, Feb. 2, 2025; and Ontario Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner in Kitchener, Ont., Monday, Feb. 3, 2025THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Lahodynskyj, Chris Young, Spencer Colby, Nathan Denette

Ontario PC Leader Doug Ford has seen his lead over the second-place Liberals shrink slightly since the start of the campaign, dipping from a 16-point advantage to 13, according to a new survey by CTV News’ official pollster Nanos Research.

The survey, released Monday, found that the PCs now enjoy about 44 per cent support from decided voters, compared to 31 per cent for the Liberals, 19 per cent for the NDP, and four per cent for the Greens.

“With a margin of error of three percentage points, this shift is a trendline worth monitoring closely,” Nik Nanos, chief data scientist for Nanos Research, said in his analysis accompanying the survey.

“The political landscape in Toronto remains fiercely competitive between the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals, while Ford maintains a stronger foothold outside Toronto.”

As of Feb. 9, the survey found that among Toronto respondents who were decided, 36.2 per cent said they would vote for the Progressive Conservatives in the upcoming election on Feb. 27. This is compared to 34.3 per cent who said they planned to vote Liberal and 24.5 per cent who signalled support from the New Democrats.

In the Greater Toronto Area, 48 per cent of decided respondents said they would vote for the PCs, about 10 percentage points higher than the number of respondents who said they support the Liberals, according to the survey.

Ford remains the top choice among respondents for preferred premier. As of Feb. 9, the survey found that about 39 per cent of respondents said they would choose Ford to lead the province, compared to 26 per cent for Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie, 15 per cent for NDP Leader Marit Stiles, and five per cent for Green Party Leader Mike Schriener.

As part of nightly tracking, commissioned by CTV News, Nanos Research conducts random telephone interviews with a three-night rolling average of about 900 Ontario voters. Survey results released Monday included 920 Ontario voters who were interview between Feb. 7 to Feb. 9. The survey has a margin of error of 3.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20.